Lives are being put at risk and the care of patients disrupted by a spate of hospital incursions from Covid-19 deniers whose online activity is channelling hatred against NHS staff, say healthcare and police chiefs. My colleagues Ben Quinn and Denis Campbell have the full story here.

The University and College Union (UCU) has criticised the prime minister’s failure to address further and higher education in his statement. The UCU general secretary, Jo Grady, said it was “scandalous that yet again the prime minister has not even bothered to mention further or higher education as part of his statement on plans to fully reopen school sites”.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show that 60% of students have not yet returned to campus and are continuing their studies at home while lockdown continues. Some universities have already committed to moving teaching online longer term, including the London School of Economics, which has told students that all compulsory teaching, learning and assessments will be online for the remainder of the academic year.

Andy Burnham, the mayor for Greater Manchester, has suggested that poorer communities who are more at risk from Covid be targeted for vaccine distribution, amid concern that supplies of the coronavirus vaccine will be reduced to the north-west of England from next month.

When asked whether the strategy of diverting vaccine supplies from the north to the south amounted to “levelling down”, he pointed to the higher levels of cases in the north of England throughout the pandemic. He said:

While I understand an approach from the government that is seeking strict numerical equality in terms of percentage of vaccine given in different parts of the country, it is the case that our poorest communities are most at risk from Covid-19, as we’ve seen throughout this pandemic.

So therefore, there has to be a regard to getting the vaccine into some of the poorest parts of the country and that might mean more progress should be made there - to protect more lives - than simply adopting a strict geographical equanimity approach.

However, in a press conference, Burnham said he was reassured with the response from NHS England that Greater Manchester would still receive enough supplies of the vaccine to meet the national target of vaccinating the first four priority groups by mid-February. He said:

I’ve got my eye on it, and I’m a little wary about it, given the proximity to mid-February and the fact that at least 200,000 people still have to be vaccinated in Greater Manchester, so it’s a little touch and go and it’s a bit worrying at this point that we’re seeing these changes announced. But I take the reassurance from NHS England on face value. I will hope they will they will stick to that and be true to their word and if they are, then that is acceptable to us.

Possibly seeking to avoid another row with the government as seen last October over the tier system, he added that he was keen that the vaccination rollout remain “free of politics”.

Nearly 310,000 people in Greater Manchester have now received the first dose of the vaccine, but Burnham said the NHS in the region was under the most pressure it had seen in living memory. He said one in four patients – 1,298 people – in hospitals across Greater Manchester had tested positive for coronavirus, with 165 of those in intensive care.

The contents of a suspect package sent to the Wockhardt vaccine factory are being taken away for analysis, North Wales police said. A spokesperson said:

We received a call at 10.41am this morning reporting that a suspicious package had been received at the Wockhardt factory on Wrexham Industrial Estate.

Officers attended and imposed a security cordon around the site, closing roads to all traffic.

Colleagues from the Royal Logistics Corp bomb disposal unit attended and examined the package to make sure it was safe to handle. The contents will be taken away for analysis and police will undertake an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the incident.

There are no wider concerns for public safety, however some roads on the industrial estate will remain closed whilst we continue our investigations.

Q: What do you know about the impact the vaccination programme is having?

Vallance says data is coming from Israel, but it is preliminary. He says it is right to be cautious.

It is too early to know what is happening in the UK.

But he says people should not expect no one who has been vaccinated to fall ill. Some people will. But the vaccines will impact on the severity of the disease.

Q: Why have the vaccination figures fallen this week?

Van-Tam says he has been helping with the vaccine rollout in three clinics in the Midlands where he lives. He pays tribute to the staff involved. They are “straining every sinew” to get the vaccine out.

Johnson says the batches of vaccine are only just being approved. He says they always said there would be bumps in the road.

He says there is an overwhelming consensus that, of the vaccines the UK has already brought, some will work very well, including the Pfizer and AstraZeneca ones.

The programme is “quite astonishing”, he says.

Vallance says 10 years ago this would not have been possible. New vaccine technologies have made this possible, he says.

And he says the process is complicated. They are not making widgets, he says.

And that’s it. The press conference is over.

Q: The head of AstraZeneca has said 30 million people could be vaccinated by the end of February. Do you agree with that?

Johnson says he cannot confirm those figures, but that he is confident of the UK’s supply.

Q: Have you considered export restrictions on supplies of vaccine to the EU?

Johnson says he is very confident of the UK’s contracts and its supply. These are matters for the EU. But the UK firmly believes that the creation of vaccines have been a result of international cooperation. The UK is playing a leading role in Covax, ensuring the vaccine gets disributed around the world.

Q: Are you angry about the pressure being placed on AstraZeneca?

Johnson repeats the point about this being a matter for the EU.

Q: You say you have done everything possible to limit deaths. But there are many actions you took that have been criticised for making things worse. Do you regret any of them?

Johnson says he takes responsibility. But there are no easy choices. There will come a time to reflect in future on what went wrong, he says. But now is not the time for that, he says.

Q: What do we know about the impact of vaccines on transmissibility?

Van-Tam says there is no clear data yet, but multiple studies are under way.

He says scientists believe vaccines could not fail to have some impact on transmission. The issue is not will they, but what the extent has been.

Vallance says there will be “some effect on transmissibility”, but we don’t know how much yet.

Q: How did you come to the date 8 March? Parents will be incredibly disappointed if this date slips.

Johnson says 8 March is the earliest date by which the government could reopen schools. But that depends everything going right.

Q: Will other restrictions be lifted from 8 March?

Johnson says schools are the priority. But he says he hopes other restrictions might be eased. He will set out the plans in the roadmap on 22 February.

Q: What impact do you expect vaccines to have on transmission?

Vallance says it is hard to “get a handle” on this. He thinks the vaccines will have a partial impact on transmission. But it will be less than the impact on hospitalisations and deaths.

He says data from Israel suggests the impact could be 60%-plus.

(See 9.50am for what the significance of a 60% impact on transmission might be.)

Q: Clinically vulnerable children have been shielding. When will they get the vaccine so they can return to school?

Van-Tam says the JCVI advice is that, for children who are extremely vulnerable, there can be a discussion between doctors and parents. Vaccines could be allowed in an off-licence way. But the vaccines have not been authorised for children, he says. He says trials looking at this are under way.

Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says he hopes that within the next few weeks there will be evidence that the vaccination programme is working.

Sir Patrick Vallance says hospital admissions are starting to come down. But they are still at very high levels, and it will take a long time before they reach very low levels, he says.

Johnson says the government is getting more confident about meeting its target for everyone in the top four priority groups to have been offered a vaccine by 15 February.

And he says in the week beginning 22 February he will publish a plan showing the route out of lockdown. He says it is “inevitably going to be subject to adjustment”.

Boris Johnson starts by offering condolences to people who have lost loved ones. But he says we must also recall the damage done to young people’s education.

He understands the stress felt by parents copying “heroically” with home school, he says.

But we also know that we all must be cautious. Schools should only open when we can be sure there won’t be another surge in the disease, he says.

He says teachers have worked heroically to make schools safe. But schools bring the community together, so there is a risk.

He says before they open, we need to be sure the vaccines are saving lives.

We are confident that will happen, he says. But he says the government must see the proof. And that will only be available in the middle of February.

He says that means schools cannot open straight after half-term. But he hopes they can open from 8 March.

Free school meal arrangements will continue until then, he says. And there will be £300m of new money to help with catch-up tutoring. Summer school will also be set up, he says.

And here are some more figures from today’s updates on the UK government’s coronavirus dashboard.

• Although today’s total for deaths is the second highest on record, there is further evidence that the daily death numbers are starting to flatten. There have been 8,597 deaths over the last seven days - just 0.9% up on the total for the previous week. Yesterday the seven-day average was 5.1% up on the previous week’s.

• A further 25,308 cases have been recorded. A week ago the total was 38,905. The total for all new cases over the last seven days is 28.9% down on the previous week. Yesterday the seven-day average was 26.4% down week on week.

• There were 3,082 Covid hospital admissions on Saturday, the most recent day for which figures are available. Week on week, hospital admissions are down 9.4%. Yesterday the equivalent figure was down 7.2%.

• Covid hospital admissions in England were below 3,000 on Saturday and Sunday, the most recent days for which figures are available. That is the first time this year they have been below 3,000.

• The number of Covid hospital patients in the UK on mechanical ventilation may have peaked. There were 3,961 yesterday. The total peaked on Sunday, at 4,077, and for two days in a row it has fallen.

• The number of first doses of the vaccine administered in the UK yesterday was back above 300,000, after two days below that level.

Yvette Cooper, the Labour chair of the Commons home affairs committee, has put out this statement about the government’s hotel quarantine announcement – or outline announcement (see 1.34pm and 2.57pm) because Priti Patel, the home secretary, told MPs that the full details would not be available until next week. (It sounds as if some important aspects of how it will work have yet to be resolved.)

Cooper said:

These measures are welcome and overdue but they do not go far enough to prevent new variants reaching and spreading in the UK. The Brazil and South Africa variants have already been found across several continents and the WHO has said their spread is being underestimated. The government got this badly wrong in the first wave, when less than 0.1% of imported cases came directly into the UK from China, but 62% came from France and Spain, countries for which there were no restrictions at all in place. We cannot make the same mistakes again if we are to protect the vaccine programme ...

Other countries operate testing on arrival, much wider quarantine hotel arrangements, quarantine taxis and proper home quarantine enforcement measures. Even under this new UK system it appears that thousands of people will still be arriving at UK airports each day after mixing with lots of people on their journey, and then will be able to head straight on to public transport across the country to get home. Ministers need to confirm how many people they expect to be covered by quarantine hotels, and how many won’t. The government needs to be rigorous about this. The prime minister can’t claim that we have one of the toughest border regimes in the world when there are still so many holes in our system.

A total of 6,665,861 Covid vaccinations took place in England between 8 December and 26 January, according to provisional NHS England data, including first and second doses, which is a rise of 260,307 on the previous day’s figures.

As PA Media reports, of this number, 6,221,850 were the first dose of the vaccine, a rise of 259,306 on the previous day’s figures, while 444,011 were the second dose, an increase of 1,001.

Public Health Wales has recorded 49 further Covid deaths (up from 44 a week ago today) and 537 further cases (down from 1,283 a week ago today).

The Royal Welsh Show, the UK’s biggest agricultural show, has been postponed until 2022 due to coronavirus restrictions, PA Media reports. Its story goes on:

The Royal Welsh Show, held annually in Llanelwedd, Powys, was due to take place between July 19 and 22 this year, but organisers believe current public health rules in Wales which ban large crowds from gathering will stretch into the summer.

The event is popular with the Royal Family, with the Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall visiting the last time it was held in 2019 to celebrate the 100th show.

It was postponed last summer due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with the showground currently being used as a mass vaccination centre.

Here is the full text of Boris Johnson’s statement to MPs earlier about schools reopening and the plan to publish a roadmap for the route out of lockdown.

Downing Street has defended Boris Johnson’s right to travel around the UK, despite non-essential travel being banned. Responding to the comments from Nicola Sturgeon, who criticised Johnson over his reported plans to visit Scotland this week (see 1.23pm), the PM’s spokesman said:

It remains a fact that it is a fundamental role of the PM to be the physical representative of the UK government. And it is right that he is visible and accessible to communities, businesses and the public across all parts of the UK, especially during this pandemic.

In the Commons Labour’s Kevin Brennan asks what the government’s estimate is of the number of people who will have to be quarantined in hotels under this plan.

Priti Patel says the government does have figures, and it will share them with MPs “in due course”.

The latest episode of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast is out. Jessica Elgot and Michael Savage discuss the latest in UK politics. Patrick Wintour and Bronwen Maddox look at how a Biden presidency might effect UK foreign policy. Plus, Rajeev Syal speaks to the new head of Unison, Christina McAnea about the “day of reckoning” coming for the government.

The Welsh government has said it does not believe the UK administration’s proposals on quarantine hotels go far enough – and has urged a joint four nations approach. A Welsh government spokesperson said:

We have agreed on the need for a joint approach between the four nations of the UK and the Republic of Ireland to strengthen border health measures, in order to prevent the further spread of coronavirus.

However, we do not believe the approach as set out by the UK government goes far enough. Further discussions on the details of the proposals will take place as soon as possible.

Patel is replying to Thomas-Symonds.

She says the emergence of the new variants has changed the situation. That is why new measures are needed.

She says it is “nonsense” for Labour to be saying they have been calling for tougher border measures throughout the crisis. They have been “flip flopping”, she says. A Labour spokeperson said quarantine would be a “blunt instrument”.

She says there are no simple solutions. The government has to manage risk. And members of the public want the political parties to come together, she says.

Steve Brine (Con) asks if all schools, including primary schools, will have to wait until 8 March before they can reopen.

Johnson says it won’t, “alas”, be the middle of February before the government has good evidence as to whether the vaccination programme is having an impact on deaths. He says, if you then allow schools two weeks to prepare for reopening, you get pushed towards 8 March as a date.

He says the government is going “about as fast as we think we can prudently go”.

And that’s the end of the Johnson statement. Priti Patel will be making her own statement shortly about the hotel quarantine plan.

In the Commons Labour’s Dame Angela Eagle asks if Johnson is proud of backing Eat Out to Help Out, given the scheme is now thought to have increased the spread of the virus by 17%.

Johnson asks if Eagle is proud of attacking the vaccine taskforce for spending more than £600,000 on ensuring vaccines reach vulnerable people.

This is from Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, on Boris Johnson’s announcement about schools.

Bob Stewart (Con) asks if the vaccine priority list will be reviewed after the first four cohorts have been vaccinated.

Johnson defends the current list (which has nine priority groups for the first phase of the vaccine programme, taking in everyone over 50, health and care staff and people with serious underlying health conditions). He says the people in these groups are most at risk from Covid.

Back in the Commons Ian Lavery (Lab) asks why the vaccine rollout in his constituency, Wansbeck, is being slowed down because the north-east has been so successful compared to other parts of the country. He says in some parts of his constituency life expectancy is 10 years lower than in parts of Boris Johnson’s constituency.

Johnson says Lavery is not right to say the vaccine rollout is being held up in Wansbeck. But he says he is glad Lavery shares his enthusiasm for levelling up.

This is from the BBC’s education correspondent Sean Coughlan on the PM’s announcement about schools.

NHS England has recorded 973 further coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.

That is up from 875 yesterday, but down from 1,027 a week ago today (which was the highest daily figure for recorded hospital deaths reported by NHS England at any point in the pandemic).

Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative chair of the Commons health committee, asks Johnson if he agrees that it would be best to compensate anyone told to self-isolate for the salary they lose. “In the end, that may be cheaper than having to extend furlough if the case rate remains high,” Hunt said.

Johnson said people should be isolating “on the basis that it is the right thing for themselves, for their families and for the country” and that payments of £500 were already available for people who needed them.

A plant involved in the manufacture of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has been forced to partially evacuate after receiving a suspicious package.

Police have sealed off the Wockhardt UK site in Wrexham, where the “fill and finish” process takes place.

A company spokesperson said:

Wockhardt UK this morning received a suspicious package to site. All relevant authorities were immediately notified and engaged. Upon expert advice we have partially evacuated the site pending a full investigation. The safety of our employees and business continuity remain of paramount importance.

UPDATE: This is from the first minister, Mark Drakeford.

Back in the Commons Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, asked Johnson to confirm that a public inquiry would be launched this year.

Johnson said of course there would be a time to learn lessons. But he said the government was working flat out at the moment on dealing with the pandemic. Now was not the time to launch an inquiry, he said, because it would distract officials.

The prime minister’s announcement about schools not reopening immediately after half term came as no surprise to headteachers, who have been anticipating a further delay in reopening schools, with the continuing high death toll and pressure on the NHS.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said:

Everybody agrees that getting all children back into class is vital as soon as possible, but this clearly cannot be rushed in such desperate circumstances, and we understand the government’s decision to extend the lockdown restrictions.

What is crucial is that the government ensures that full reopening is done in a way which is safe and sustainable, and which inspires the confidence of education staff and the public.

Barton welcomed the prime minister’s promise of an additional £300m of catch-up funding, but ahead of any further reopening he called for clarity on the use of rapid turnaround coronavirus tests, a review of government guidance on safety measures for schools to make sure they are fit-for-purpose, and a timetable for the vaccination of education staff.

He also stressed that schools were already open now for vulnerable children and for the children of key workers.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, asked Johnson to maintain the universal credit uplift and improve support for the self-employed.

Johnson said the SNP should stop talking about an independence referendum.

I’ve updated the post at 1.38pm with the full quotes from Boris Johnson on schools reopening from 8 March. You may need to refresh the page for the update to appear.

Starmer says it is quite something for Johnson to open schools one day, close them then next, call them vectors of transmission, and then criticise Labour for saying they are unsafe.

He says Labour welcomes any steps being taken to open schools. But it wants to look at the details, he says.

And he repeats his call for the vaccination of key workers to be accelerated, with teachers and teaching staff being vaccinated during half-term. (See 12.49pm.)

Starmer says, if the PM is saying he did everything he could to save lives, is he really telling grieving families that those losses were inevitable, and nothing could have been done to save lives.

Sir Keir Starmer says he accepts that Boris Johnson regrets what has happened. But this was not inevitable, he says. He says what has happened has been down to mistakes made by the prime minister.

He says 20% of deaths happened in care homes. He says he does not think Johnson realises how offensive it was to blame care homes for what happened.

He restates his criticism of Johnson for delaying lockdown measures. He says there have been 50,000 deaths since 11 November. That’s 50,000 deaths in 77 days.

That’s a scarcely believable toll on the British people.

In isolation any of these mistakes are perhaps understandable. Taken together it’s a damning indictment of how the government has handled this pandemic.

Boris Johnson will hold a press conference later, Sky’s Aubrey Allegretti reports.

Johnson says the government has been working flat-out to address the problems caused by the Covid outbreak at the DVLA in Swansea.

And that’s it. PMQs is over.

Paul Bristow (Con) asks the PM if he accepts people’s mental health has suffered during the pandemic. Will this be a factor in deciding when to lift lockdown.

Johnson says he knows this is a particular problem for people in the NHS.

Bill Esterson (Lab) says 1.8 million self-employed people have not had financial support from the government. When will the government offer them support?

He quotes from an IFS briefing on this issue published today.

Johnson says the government will continue to put its arms around people during the crisis.

Steven Bonnar (SNP) asks the PM to commit to extending the £20-per-week universal credit uplift.

Johnson says the government will continue to look after the people of this country.

Sally-Ann Hart (Con) asks about support for fishing communities.

Johnson says this has been an issue. The government is spending £23m to help fishing companies deal with red tape. But there will also be £100m spent to help the industry revive, he says.

Asked about pensioners living abroad who have had their government pensions frozen, Johnson says he will arrange a ministerial meeting on this issue.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con) asks the PM for an assurance that his plan for the lifting of lockdown will show how areas can come out of the higher tiers.

Johnson says his statement later will cover schools. And he says in a few weeks’ time he will set out a broader roadmap for how the whole country can come out of lockdown.

Seema Malhotra (Lab) asks about leaseholders trapped in flats they cannot sell because of the cost of replacing cladding.

Johnson says Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, will publish a plan to address this shortly.

Damian Collins (Con) asks if the PM agrees there should be more data-sharing on vaccination take-up.

Johnson says all MPs want to see this. But there are particular issues with sharing medical records, he says.

Christine Jardine (Lib Dem) says the government has failed to get the 25% tariff on Scotch whisky sold in the US removed. Will the government address this?

Johnson says, now the UK is out of the EU, it will be able to do a trade deal with the US to obviate the need for these tariffs.

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, criticises the government for authorising the first deep coal mine for years. And she calls for a ban on the export of plastic waste.

Johnson says only 5% of energy comes from coal. That is because of the actions of Conservative governments, he says. And he says the government will fulfil its manifesto promise to ban the export of plastic waste.

Johnson says 2.7 million self-employed people have received support from the government.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says Johnson was wrong to say everything possible was done to reduce the death toll.

Johnson says there are no easy answers. He says he is proud of what the NHS has done.

Blackford says it is important to learn from mistakes. He asks if the furlough scheme will be extended, and if the government will support the self-employed.

Johnson says the government has offered people support unequalled around the world.

Starmer says Johnson’s arguments are not good enough. One family in three says it does not have the ability to do home schooling. Our schools are closed but our borders are open, he says. He says the government has not learned the lessons from the pandemic. This afternoon he will speak to relatives of people who have died. The last time he asked the PM what he would say to them, the PM replied with a gag. What would Johnson like him to say to them?

Johnson says he is grateful to Starmer for meeting relatives. He has met relatives too, he says. He says he would say he regrets the loss of lives.

But he accuses Starmer of playing politics with the pandemic. He says Labour has twisted and turned. He says Starmer now wants to associate itself with the vaccine programme, because it is going well. He says Starmer criticised Kate Bingham, head of the vaccine taskforce, for spending money on PR. But they were researching how to communicate with hard-to-reach groups. Johnson says it is hard to think of a better use of public money.

Johnson seems to have lifted this last line from Alex Wickham’s London Playbook briefing this morning. Wickham wrote:

Readers will remember Bingham copped a lot of flak a few months back, with Starmer among those criticising her for apparently splurging £670,000 on PR. The Labour leader said in November that Bingham’s spending ‘cannot be justified’. Well, a senior government source got in touch with Playbook last night to lavish praise on Bingham and explain that the money was spent on testing public perceptions on taking vaccines. ‘I can scarcely think of a better use of public money,’ the senior source said. ‘I wonder whether Starmer might like to correct what he said and whether Labour might take back what they said about both the Vaccine Taskforce and Kate Bingham’s integrity, and about that specific use of funds.’

Starmer says he is not clear what Johnson’s policy is. He says many families are angry about the government’s failure to distribute enough laptops.

Johnson says he knows how frustrated people are. He says 1.3m laptops have been provided.

And he says his statement to the Commons soon will say what more is being done on school reopening. He challenges Starmer to say, “in defiance of his union paymasters”, that schools are safe.

Starmer says if Johnson does not ask why the death toll has been so high, he will not learn the lessons. He has repeatedly been too slow, he says.

The prime minister was slow into the first lockdown last March, he was slowly getting protective equipment to the frontline, slow to protect our borders, slow on testing and tracing, slow to the second lockdown in the autumn, slow to change the Christmas mixing rules, slow again into this third lockdown.

He asks if the government will force all arrivals to quarantine.

Johnson says the home secretary will make a statement later.

Starmer says the PM should be able to answer this now.

He says Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, recently said you must act hard and fast to tackle a pandemic like this, and that waiting does not work. Does the PM agree?

Johnson says there are no easy answers. He says 6.9 million people have had the vaccine. We are on target to cover the most vulnerable groups by 15 February. He says he hopes to set out in the next few weeks in much more detail how we can exit the lockdown.

Rehman Chishti (Con) says some elderly people in Medway are not getting the vaccine. Can it get a mass vaccination centre?

Johnson says the government is looking at setting up a large-scale vacination centre near Chishti’s constituency.

Boris Johnson starts by saying it is Holocaust Memorial Day. He pays tribute to the survivors, and says the Holocaust must never be forgotten.

Earlier he tweeted this on the subject.

Here is a Guardian article by Prof Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, on five ways the government could have done more to avoid Covid deaths.

And the Commons science committee has been hearing evidence this morning about NHS Test and Trace. Dr Richard Harling, director of health at Staffordshire county council, told the committee that the service was not as responsive to local concerns as he would like. He said:

The relationship with NHS Test and Trace has improved over the last few months but they are still relatively remote. We don’t have well-developed relationships with, for example, a local account manager, which would be someone we can turn to with issues or problems.

Again if residents raise issues or queries with NHS Test and Trace there is quite a long chain of command for it to go all the way up and then for the answer to come all the way back down.

It is perhaps not as responsive yet as we would like to see it.

Discontent in loyalist communities is “growing” over the Northern Ireland protocol, which imposes checks on some goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland, MPs have been told.

In evidence to the Commons Northern Ireland affairs committee this morning, Assistant Chief Constable Mark McEwan from the Police Service of Northern Ireland said:

We are seeing signals, there are signal incidents that have happened, particularly in recent days. We are starting to see graffiti, we are picking up social media sentiment of a growing discontent, particularly within the Protestant/loyalist/unionist community. That has not manifested itself in any out workings at this point.

McEwan said that this was not causing significant concern, but that it was something the police were monitoring.

People testing positive with the new variant of coronavirus are more likely to have some symptoms (ie, not to be asymptomatic), but less likely to report a loss of taste and smell, than people testing positive with the standard variant, according to a report from the ONS.

Overall, half of people who tested positive reported having symptoms, the ONS says.

Airline bosses are demanding that the government provides an “urgent road map for the reopening of air travel”, PA Media is reporting. The chief executives of British Airways, easyJet and Virgin Atlantic are among those signing a joint letter ahead of this afternoon’s announcement about plans for a hotel quarantine system targeted at arrivals from high-risk countries. In the letter they say:

We are writing to you seeking an urgent road map for the reopening of air travel and a package of support for UK aviation that recognises the urgency and scale of the danger now facing our sector.

AstraZeneca has pulled out of a meeting with the EU scheduled for today about Covid-19 vaccine supplies. There is further coverage here, on our global coronavirus live blog.

In interviews this morning Justin Welby, the archbishop of Canterbury, has spoken about the importance of showing solidarity with those in grief. He also identified signs of hope. He told BBC Breakfast:

Where I see it is in the love that we pass on ... I see it in hospitals, I see it in neighbours caring for each other - this wonderful outflowing in community support that we’ve seen over the last 10 months.

I see hope in this growing determination to build better in the future, to come back and say we don’t want to live in a country where there’s inequalities in health, where there’s inequalities and injustices - we are going to do things that work better for all of us.

I think there are many signs of hope that these deaths were not in vain and will lead to a better country.

This is from John McDonnell, the former shadow chancellor, on Boris Johnson.

The Office for National Statistics has published a report today saying that, in the first week of January, coronavirus cases were rising in people doing “patient-facing” jobs, but not in other groups.

According to the Sun this morning, Boris Johnson is planning to publish a roadmap out of lockdown by the middle of next month. Johnson has repeatedly said the government will look at case numbers, hospital numbers, the success of the vaccine rollout and the threat posed by any new variants when considering when lockdown restrictions can be eased. On the BBC this morning Adam Fleming, its chief political correspondent, said the plan would include a crucial new factor; the impact vaccines are having on transmission.

The vaccines are effective at stopping people getting ill with Covid, but it is not yet know what impact they have on stopping people transmitting the virus. As a Sage paper (pdf) written in early December says, this factor will make a big difference to what happens once restrictions are eased.

If the vaccines are effective against transmission, then the number of cases and deaths drops rapidly if we can keep R below 1 until most people have been offered a vaccine. If it is not effective against transmission, the number of deaths will remain high because there is a pool of unvaccinated vulnerable people who are neither protected directly nor by others around them being immune to infection and infectiousness.

These chart illustrate the point. They show estimates for the impact on cases (left) and deaths (right) depending on whether the vaccines have zero impact on transmission (the orange blocks at the top), or 25% impact, 50% impact of 75% impact (the purple, yellow and green blocks respectively.)

Here is an article by my colleague Robert Booth explaining why the UK’s coronavirus death toll has been so high. He says government decisions were a factor, but not the only one.

In the Times (paywall) Tom Whipple, its science editor, also has an article looking at what went wrong. His conclusion is similar.

The answers [as to why the UK death toll has been so high] are many. Some are undoubtedly down to luck: population density, international travel, demographics, obesity. But in the pandemic, countries also made their own luck.

Although Boris Johnson claims that he did everything he could to save lives, the Mirror has identified 15 ways in which it says he didn’t.

But the Telegraph (Johnson’s old paper) has a different theory. It has published an article by the academic Lee Jones blaming the high death toll on the failings of the “regulatory state”.